Beryl Update For Sunday July 7th 11am

Hurricane warning road sign

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Summary of Information as of 10 AM

* Hurricane Warning for the waters and coastal portions of the Coastal Bend

* Tropical Storm Warning for the inland portions of the counties in the Coastal Bend, Victoria Crossroads and Bee County

* Storm Surge Warning in effect from the north entrance of Padre Islands National Seashore to Port O'Connor

* Flood Watch in effect for the Victoria Crossroads and Refugio and Aransas

Location: 25.9 N 95.1 W, about 195 miles southeast of Port Aransas

Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 MPH

Present Movement: NW at 10 MPH

Minimum Central Pressure: 992 MB

What’s New?

  • Storm Surge values have decreased to 1-3 feet from Baffin Bay to the north entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore
  • Storm Surge values have decreased to 2-4 feet for Corpus Christi Bay; maintained 3-5 feet from the north entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to Mesquite Bay and 4-6" north of Mesquite Bay.

SOURCE: National Weather Service Corpus Christi

Beryl continues to move northwest at 10 mph over the western Gulf waters this morning and will gradually turn to the north as it approaches the Middle to Upper Texas Coast tonight into Monday. Beryl is still forecast to strengthen to hurricane status before making landfall tonight or Monday morning. There is some concern Beryl could undergo rapid intensification right before landfall. Thus, we are still messaging folks should plan for a Category 2 hurricane. Guidance continues to show a slight eastward shift in the track, and this is reflected in the latest NHC forecast. Beryl is now most likely to make landfall over the Mid to Upper Texas Coast. Beryl remains compact in size with tropical storm force winds currently extending up to 125 miles northeast from its center.

Outer rain bands will be moving into the coastal waters of the Mid Texas coast this morning with tropical storm force winds reaching the coastal areas by this evening. Conditions will continue to deteriorate overnight as Beryl moves into the area. Beryl is then forecast to move northward into southeast Texas Monday .

Tropical Storm Beryl is continuing to slowly get better organized and could begin to strengthen this afternoon as the eyewall closes off. A majority of the latest track models have continued the trend of shifting east just a bit. However, given that Beryl is still in its organizational phase, and track errors at 24-36 hours are still 30 to 50 miles, hurricane and storm surge warnings remain unchanged for the Middle Texas Coast. Some adjustments to local Watches and Warnings may be needed later today if trends continue. With a continued eastward shift in the track, the probabilities of strong sustained winds over 50 knots are expected to lower along with expected rainfall totals.

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